A recent January ranking by U-Haul has us very excited about the markets we are focusing investments in. U-Haul you may ask? How do trucks have anything to do with real estate?
U-Haul was formed in 1945 and over the last 75 years has expanded to 22,000 locations across 50 states and 10 Canadian provinces. The company’s fleet not includes 176,000 trucks, 127,000 trailers, and 41,000 towing devices.
Each year, U-Haul ranks every state based on the net traffic gain of one-way U-Haul trucks entering a state vs. leaving a state. The company has access to over 2 million transactions that the list is based off of. If a state has significant net gains, the data suggests more people are entering the market and staying. As multifamily investors, we are interested in population movement and strength when determining what markets to invest in.
For 2020, the top state was Tennessee whose arrivals jumped 12% year-over-year followed by perennial heavy dog Texas. Texas has now finished in the top two for 5 straight years beginning in 2016.
Top 10 States for U-Haul Net Migration
1. Tennessee
2. Texas
3. Florida
4. Ohio
5. Arizona
6. Colorado
7. Missouri
8. Nevada
9. North Carolina
10. Georgia
Reviewing the list, the Sunbelt clearly pops, highlighting the ongoing strength of the region. Economic trends, growing job opportunities, lifestyle, friendly government policies, and “southern hospitality” are all reasons that attract individuals to this region. In fact, according to Newmark 6/10 top markets for rent growth in 2020 were located in the Sunbelt.
A second way of analyzing the U-Haul data is based upon the average premium or discount to take a truck to a city vs. returning the same truck. Below is a graphical display of these results, reviewing October 2020 vs. October 2019 changes.
The graphic clearly demonstrates the challenges gateway cities such as San Francisco, Chicago, and New York faced in 2020. Meanwhile, the majority of the Sunbelt and major Texas markets all demonstrated positive migration trends. We continue to be bullish on these markets and believe they are set for long term population growth which will support apartment demand.
Do you see your state on the list above? How about states you like to visit or have invested in? We would love to hear your thoughts or personal predictions for 2021!
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